DHARAMSHALA: The National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance is currently dominating the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election, marking a crucial political moment in the Union Territory’s first election since the abrogation of Article 370.
As of 11 am (October 8, 2024), the alliance has taken a commanding lead, with candidates ahead in 50 of the 90 contested seats, solidifying its position in a race that was expected to be much tighter.
The NC has been the standout performer within the alliance, leading in 40 of the 56 seats it contested, a substantial improvement from the 2014 Assembly election when it managed only 15 seats. The Congress, in contrast, is leading in 10 of the 39 seats it is vying for, making the NC the primary driver of the alliance’s success.
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On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is ahead in 25 constituencies, while the once-formidable Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, is leading only in five. Independent candidates, currently leading in seven seats, could play a pivotal role in shaping the final outcome of the election.
This election signals a sharp decline for the PDP, which secured 28 seats in 2014 and formed a coalition government with the BJP. However, after the alliance broke down in 2018, the PDP’s influence has waned considerably.
Exit polls had slightly favoured the Congress-NC alliance, predicting 43 seats for the duo, while forecasting 26 for the BJP and four to 12 for the PDP. Despite these predictions, the NC’s stronger-than-expected performance puts the alliance in a potentially more comfortable position, though a hung Assembly remains a possibility with independents possibly determining the final balance of power.
For the BJP, which won 25 seats in 2014, this election is a test of its standing in Jammu and Kashmir, but current trends suggest it may not surpass its previous record. Meanwhile, the PDP’s steep decline reflects a major shift in the region’s political landscape, paving the way for the NC’s resurgence.
Complicating matters is the contentious decision by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha to nominate five members to the Assembly. This move, criticised by both the Congress-NC and the PDP, has sparked a debate about the fairness of the process.
